Premier League Day 1 action continues Saturday as Burnley and Southampton go head-to-head at Turf Moor. AccuScore simulations are showing some side value in this one.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Dafabet Odds
Team to Win (Regular Time)
Burnley FC: 2.69
Draw: 3.29
Southampton FC: 2.82
Spread
Burnley FC -0.5: 2.61
Southampton FC +0.5: 1.52
Total
Over 2: 1.60
Under 2: 2.42
What to Watch For
Betting on the Total: Odds indicate there’s a about an 41 percent chance the total combined score stays under 2 goals. That happens in 47 percent of simulations – suggesting some added value on the pick.
The projected score is 0.96 – 0.80, in favor of Burnley.
Betting Trends: The UNDER of 1.5 has hit in the last two matchups between these two sides. The UNDER of 2.5 goals has hit in the last seven overall.
Some Momentum: Southampton has had some solid performances in their summer friendlies so far — finishing with four wins and a draw. Southampton goalkeeper Angus Gunn hopes to use that momentum heading into this match, “emphasizing” the team has to “start well this season.”
Home vs Away Trends from 2018-2019: Looking back to earlier in the year, Burnley finished the season with two home losses (Arsenal, Manchester City). Southampton finished the season with a loss and a draw in their final two road fixtures of 2018-2019.
Head to Head: These two sides last matched up in Feb. 2019 when they finished in a 1-1 draw. They have finished in a draw in their last 3 matchups dating back to Feb. 2018.
Projected Leaders
Danny Ings has close to an 18 percent chance to score for Southampton this Saturday. Ings averages 1.09 shots overall per sim, 0.57 shots on goal per and 0.19 goals per sim.
For Burnley, we’ll have our eyes on Ashley Barnes. Barnes has close to a 32 percent chance to score, averaging 2.26 shots overall per sim, 0.85 shots on goal per and 0.38 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
The draw.
Odds indicate there’s a 30 percent chance this match ends in a draw. That happens in approximately 35 percent of simulations, suggesting some added value on the pick. The projected score is 0.96 – 0.80, in favor of Burnley. Given this is the first weekend of league play, trends suggest both sides may be a bit rusty to kick things off.
After a season-ending 113-98 loss to the Boston Celtics in Game 5 of the Eastern… Read More
With the build-up to this summer’s European Championship heating up, Germany and France have revealed… Read More
Ahead of their opening group stage game against Poland in the Euro 2024 in Germany… Read More
Ahead of their opening game for Euro 2024 in Germany against Austria in Stuttgart on… Read More
The heavyweight division is about to witness one of its most prolific matchups in a… Read More
Manchester City's Brazilian goalkeeper Ederson will miss out on the team's final League game of… Read More